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A New Approach to Forecasting Solar Flares?

1.Evolution of the magnetic field in two simulations of the formation of active solar regions. Top row: non-eruptive scenario where the configuration remains stable. Bottom row: eruptive scenario. Credit: © E.Pariat, figure adapted from Pariat & al, A&A 2017 2. Time evolution of the value of a quantity based on magnetic helicity, for the various numerical simulations tested. This predictive quantity has high values before the eruption in the eruptive simulations (red, orange and yellow curves) and low values in the non-eruptive cases (black, violet, blue and cyan curves). 3. Artist's impression of a solar flare and the twisted magnetic field that carries away the ejected solar material.

1.Evolution of the magnetic field in two simulations of the formation of active solar regions. Top row: non-eruptive scenario where the configuration remains stable. Bottom row: eruptive scenario.
Credit: © E.Pariat, figure adapted from Pariat & al, A&A 2017
2. Time evolution of the value of a quantity based on magnetic helicity, for the various numerical simulations tested. This predictive quantity has high values before the eruption in the eruptive simulations (red, orange and yellow curves) and low values in the non-eruptive cases (black, violet, blue and cyan curves).
3. Artist’s impression of a solar flare and the twisted magnetic field that carries away the ejected solar material.

The emerging discipline of space meteorology aims to reliably predict solar flares so that we may better g...

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